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“Agriculture Committee members gathered for the vote at a room in the Capitol after voting on other legislation on the Senate floor – cialis 5. Cialis 5: kate Cyrul, a Committee spokeswoman, couldn’t provide the final tally for the vote today.She said there were “no negative votes” on Gensler’s nomination.

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Cialis 5: gensler’s nomination still requires approval from the full Senate.Harkin said he didn’t know when a Senate vote would be scheduled. Cialis 5: gensler was nominated to the position by Obama on Dec.18.”  Click for ARTICLE

• CFTC Chairman Nominee Gensler Wins Committee Approval
• Tina Seeley
• Bloomberg
• March 16, 2009

Still seems strange that there is no confirmation vote scheduled by the full Senate – cialis 5.

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“Without nightly margin supervision on CDS short positions these vehicles have turned into the means to launch monstrous focused attacks on specific companies; the buyer has limited risk and virtually unlimited reward.

This is exactly like me buying fire insurance on your house, and in addition I can name the amount of insurance I want to buy, even exceeding the house’s value!

How nervous will you get if I buy $10 million in “fire insurance” against your $100,000 bungalow and then start stacking up gasoline cans in my driveway?

As a direct and proximate cause of this ability to distort the market it becomes possible to create self-fulfilling prophecies almost on demand, with the people doing it profiting handsomely – at the expense of American workers and otherwise-sound companies.

This form of exploitation of the market must stop.”  Click for BLOG POST.

• Stop OTC CDS Abuse NOW
• Karl Denninger
• The Market Ticker
• March 4, 2009

This blog post gives a detailed insider’s look at how CDS are used to attack a company.  Because they involve infinite leverage, just a few milliion dollars can push CDS spreads around to the point where a company looks like it is in serious financial trouble.

As always the solution is daily posting of margin which in order to be effective must involve mandatory exchange clearing.  It also makes sense to ban “naked” CDS because that is a risk taking rather than a risk reducing activity; cheap impotence drug generic cialis delivery.

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” Cialis contraindications: wall Street positioned long-only commodity index investing as a core asset class and critical diversification. Investors piled into this strategy, particularly in the first half of last year; cialis contraindications. These inflows drove prices higher which produced positive returns for earlier investors, leading to yet more investors becoming attracted, again driving up prices, creating a vicious cycle analogous to a classic pyramid. Cialis contraindications: unlike a true Ponzi scheme, it was not just the investors who ultimately were harmed, but the economy as a whole.”  Click Here for LINK

• The $300 Billion Ponzi Scheme
• Jeff Korzenik
• (in)efficient frontiers blog
• February 9, 2009

Excellent analysis – definitely read the whole thing.

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The same Wall Street deregulation that has led to the current financial crisis is also the
source of the recent violent volatility in the commodities futures markets; cheap generic cialis.In both cases,
through the iterative dismantling of the former banking and securities regulatory
structure, and the dismantling of the commodities futures position limits and creation of
dark markets in commodities, the end result has been chaotic moves in capital markets
and commodities markets that have caused significant stress for our economy and
American Consumers.

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As the crisis has intensified, U.S – cheap generic cialis.Capital Markets Regulators, including the SEC, the
Treasury Department, and the Federal Reserve, have acted in the past weeks to
unilaterally change previous long standing rules and policies; cheap generic cialis.They have taken over
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and put it into a “conservatorship”.When AIG got into
trouble with their CDS portfolio the US government loaned AIG up to 85 billion dollars
from the taxpayer and for that service took an almost 80% stake in the company.This
morning regulators announced a plan to create an estimated 800 billion dollar RTC II
program to rid financial institutions of the toxic waste mortgage products created by Wall
Street banks in the last few years.They are going to backstop large money market
mutual funds so that these funds can continue to fund, among other things, brokerage
houses in the overnight funds market.Finally, they have announced that they are going
to the unprecedented step of banning short selling completely in financial stocks.

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trounce their proclaimed ideological principles when necessary.

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Unfortunately, this administration and the current regulators have not shown a focus to
act in a similar way to change the rules of the commodities futures markets that would
have a significant benefit to ordinary Americans.The CFTC, the commodities markets
regulator, has taken the view that more regulations are not necessary because they believe
somehow that the same “financial innovation” has not affected them – cheap generic cialis.That is false.
Commodity index swaps and expansion of dark commodities markets have severely
distorted prices for commodities around the world, and greatly amplified an upward surge
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Philip Verleger has taken it upon himself to try and rebut our report The Accidental Hunt Brothers – Act 2.

Click HERE for his rebuttal.

Several people have asked us for our response.  Well what can you say?  Other than calling us names he really just gives an alternative view for why crude oil prices have shot up and then plummeted.

So this is what I will say:

(1) We believe that the price of WTI crude oil futures contracts is determined by the supply and demand of WTI crude oil futures contracts – it’s that simple.

There is a huge new source of demand from institutional investors who want to buy crude oil futures contracts and that affects the price as much as demand from any other source.

(2) Spot prices for physical oil are based off of the WTI crude oil futures price, so ceteris paribus a $1 increase in the “paper barrel” price will result in a $1 increase in the physical barrel price.

(3) Both the suppy and demand for crude oil are highly inelastic especially in the short run.  When crude oil prices rise by $10 or $20 or $30 per barrel then the world is stuck paying that higher price until eventually they can sell their SUV (which just plummetted in value) and buy a Prius (which are in short supply).

(4) We don’t see much if any inventory growth because inventory is held in the ground.  If crude oil starts piling up then the producers can simply pump less.  They have no incentive to grow inventories and see crude prices drop as a result.

We’ll just have to leave it up to our readers to decide for themselves which they believe is the more plausible explanation.

Our report “Act 2″ was really meant to be read in conjunction with the larger and more comprehensive report “The Accidental Hunt Brothers.” I just gave 4 quick bullet points in this blog post so if you want greater detail then I would encourage you to read the big report – cialis cost low.

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THE ACCIDENTAL HUNT BROTHERS – ACT 2

If you click on the hyperlink above you can download the September 10th report entitled “The Accidental Hunt Brothers – Act 2” by itself.  Please note that “Act 2″ is really an update to the first report so they are meant to be read together.

If you click in the banner at the top of this page you’ll get both reports and it will download quicker since they’re compressed in a zip file.

Any comments on the report can be made in response to this post.

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THE ACCIDENTAL HUNT BROTHERS

If you click on the hyperlink above you can download the July 31st report entitled “The Accidental Hunt Brothers” by itself.

If you click in the banner at the top of this page you’ll get both reports and it will download quicker since they’re compressed in a zip file.r any comments you have about the July 31st report.

Any comments on the report can be made in response to this post.

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Commonly Raised Objection (CRO)

“Index Specualtors re-balance their portfolio on a quarterly basis cheapest cialis index, so that if commodity prices run way up then they will be overweight commodities and they will sell commodities which stabilizes price moves.”

This is a very strong statement concerning Index Speculators ability to affect prices by buying and selling.  If Index Speculators selling of a just a portion of their position will bring prices down then imagine what effect buying their entire position had on driving prices up!.  Anyone unwittingly saying this is arguing our point for us (very persuasively I might add .

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Commonly Raised Objections (CRO)

“Oil prices are high because of China, India, et cetera.  It’s all supply and demand.”

Everything that has been said about supply and demand is true and having an impact.  But what we have is a case of supply and demand and demand.  You have the normal supply and demand effects and then you have the additional huge demand for commodities futures coming from Institutional Investors.

Demand is demand.  If a speculator buys 100 million barrels of oil in the futures markets then that will have the same effect as a refiner buying 100 million barrels of oil in the futures markets.  We believe in supply and demand and we don’t deny one of the largest sources of demand which is financial demand coming from investors.

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Copy of e-mail I sent on June 27th to every Congressional staffer for whom I had an e-mail:

Hi:

I am sending this e-mail to all the Congressional Staffers that I’ve talked with since I started consulting for Michael Masters. Mike was my only client up until today, but the Air Transport Association has approached me to consult with them concerning the issue of excessive speculation in futures markets – canada tadalafil. Canada tadalafil: this is a complex issue made more complex by the deliberate attempts of some parties to try and obfuscate the facts. Hopefully I can bring a level of clarity and understanding.

I still look forward to working with you and providing you with data and analysis. Just wanted you to know up front that ATA is a new client and I’m hoping to add more clients in the future.

Have a great weekend,

Adam K.White, CFA
Director of Research

Also here is a copy of the first two paragraphs of my testimony to the House Agriculture Committee on July 10th:

Mr; canada tadalafil.Chairman and Members of the Committee canada tadalafil, thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. I first began to study the role of institutional investment in the commodities futures markets canada tadalafil, back in early 2006, while I was employed by Masters Capital Management. Since I formed my own independent research company I have continued to study this issue in-depth. Canada tadalafil: i have recently added the Air Transport Association as a client but I am not representing them here today.

Instead I want to share the results of my research efforts. I am co-authoring an in-depth research report with Michael Masters that we hope to have completed in the next week or two; canada tadalafil. My testimony today essentially represents the executive summary of that report – canada tadalafil. With your permission I would like to submit the full report to your committee when it is complete.

Since Michael Masters has experienced ad hominem attacks due to the fact that he has some airline positions in his portfolio I figured I’d go ahead and disclose to the world via this blog that ATA is a client of mine.  I am proud to have ATA as a client.

If our work is successful and Congress passes tough legislation cracking down on excessive speculation and index speculation then oil prices will come down dramatically and that will benefit the airlines.  It will also benefit 300 million Americans and 6 billion citizens of the world.  I don’t believe there is a single person that does not have a dog in this fight.

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Commonly Raised Objection (CRO)

We get two kinds of questions about why Index Speculators do not show up in inventory data.

The first way people ask this is “why if they’re buying all these commodities don’t we see an increase in inventories?”  The answer is that Index Speculators never take delivery of the actual commodities underlying the futures contract.  So when it gets close to the time to take delivery then the index methodology specifies that they roll their position to a nearby futures contract.

It is important to understand that if you start off long a certain month’s futures contract and then you short it as part of a calendar spread / roll trade then the futures contract for that near month will simply extinguish and you will now have a new position in the next month.

Example:

In June buy an August contract

In July buy an August / September calendar spread equal to short August and long September.

The long August and the short August cancel out and now you are long only September.

Index Speculators have their upward impact on commodities futures prices when they first put on the trade.

We think that they have additional impact when they roll their positions but we don’t have any data to back that up the way we do with the initial impact.

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Commonly Raised Objection (CRO)

“Commodities that are not part of an index are seeing price increases as well, sometimes greater than the commodities in the indices.”

Economists call this the “Substitution Effect” or the “Cross Elasticity of Demand.”   It simply means that if you operate a power plant for instance and you have a choice to burn coal or natural gas in order to generate steam to turn the turbines then if natural gas prices rise you will switch to buying coal which will raise coal prices.  If you are a beverage manufacturer and aluminum gets too expensive you can put your soft drinks in steel cans.

Because of these strong relationships amongst commodities that substitute for one another it is often the case that the pricing of non-exchange traded commodities is linked to the exchange traded ones.  The closer the substitute the closer the linkage.  For instance diesel fuel and jet fuel both price directly off the heating oil contract.

GaveKal Research also has a good piece talking more in-depth about these issues.  Click HERE

Additional Note

The commodity indices cover the 25 largest and most traded commodities.  Typically the physical markets for commodities that are not exchange traded are pretty illiquid and closely balanced between supply and demand.  So you can see substantial price shifts with small changes in the supply or demand.

We know that Investors have been buying physical commodities and when they buy physical commodities in these markets, they don’t have to buy a lot to move the price.

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“For Every Buyer There Is A Seller”

Yes! but at what price?

For every transaction in history there has been a buyer and a seller but prices move all the time.  In early January when WTI crude oil was $95 per barrel there was a seller for every buyer and in July when WTI crude oil was $145 per barrel there was a seller for every buyer.

By necessity every transaction must involve a buyer and a seller but prices are determined by the enthusiasm / motivation of the buyer compared with the enthusiasm / motivation of the seller.

If you list your house for sale and five buyers show up the same day with their checkbooks in hand you will get a higher price for your house than if your house sits on the market for six months before you see a single offer.  Still one seller (you) and one buyer but totally different prices.

As a capitalist economy prices move to “allocate” or match up buyers and sellers.  So when you’ve got a tremendous new source of demand in the form of Index Speculators prices have to rise to induce sellers to meet that demand.

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“If it’s not real demand to heat our homes the cialis, power our factories and feed our population, then could it be, might it be, a bubble?”  Click for Article

• Pension Funds ‘Diversify’ Into Commodity Bubble
• Caroline Baum
• Bloomberg
• May 14, 2008

Very well written piece with weigh in from two experts: Mike Aronstein and Jim Bianco.

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CFTC Agricultural Forum ordering cialis online, April 22, 2008  Click for Links

Agenda

I.Price Discovery in the Agriculture Futures Markets

a.Overview of fundamentals in markets
b.Role of speculators, index funds and commercial hedgers
c.The adequacy of transparency in the markets
d – ordering cialis online.The adequacy of contract terms and conditions

II; ordering cialis online.Hedging in the Agricultural Futures Markets

a. Ordering cialis online: convergence of futures and cash prices
b.Forward contracting in the current markets
c.Role of agricultural swaps and other risk management tools

III.Margin Levels (Performance Bond) and Agricultural Credit

a.Role of margin and the clearing system
b – ordering cialis online. Ordering cialis online: overview of agricultural credit and record margin levels
c.Proper determination of margin
d; ordering cialis online.Price limits and margin levels
e; ordering cialis online.Credit market conditions and Ag lending outlook

Presentations
Head Table:

* Acting Chairman Walter Lukken
* Commissioner Michael Dunn
* Commissioner Jill Sommers
* Commissioner Bart Chilton

Government/Academic Panelists:

* Mark Keenum
U.S.Department of Agriculture
* Leland Strom
Farm Credit Administration
* Jeff Harris
Chief Economist
* John F.Fenton/Dave Kass
Deputy Director of Market Surveillance, Division of Market Oversight/Industry Economist
* Gerald Bange
USDA Office of the Chief Economist
* Esther George
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
* Eugene Kunda (Presentation)
Asst – ordering cialis online.Director ordering cialis online, Office for Future and Options Research, University of Illinois, Urbana
* Andrew Jacob
Farm Credit Administration

Participants
Charlie Carey, CME Group
David Lehman, CME Group
Thomas Farley, ICE Futures, U.S.
Layne Carlson, Minneapolis Grain Exchange
Roger Hipwell, Minneapolis Grain Exchange
Seaver Sowers, American Bankers Association
Samuel Miller, American Bankers Association
John Kowalik, CalPERS
Doug Hepworth, Gresham Investment Management LLC
Bob Greer, PIMCO
Robert Ellis, Ridgefield Capital
Billy Dunavant, Dunavant Enterprises
Andy Weil, American Cotton Shippers’ Association
Joe Nicosia, American Cotton Shippers’ Association
Chuck Coley, National Cotton Council of America
Woods Eastland, AMCOT
Wallace Darneille, AMCOT
Tom Coyle, National Grain and Feed Association
Jerry McReynolds, National Association of Wheat Growers
Diana Klemme, Grain Service Corporation
Garry Niemeyer, National Corn Growers Association
Luke Lind, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association
Steve Wellman, American Soybean Association
Tom Buis, National Farmers Union
Bob Stallman, American Farm Bureau Federation
Mike Walter, Commodity Markets Council
David Brown, American Bakers Association
John Popp, Independent Bakers Association
Jim Byrum, Michigan Agri-business Council
Justin Towery, USA Rice Federation

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