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Goldman Sachs is perhaps the most hated corporation in America right now.  They are taking flak from all sides.  Here are just a couple examples:

So, when the public sees those firms pay out huge bonuses again, it should be understandable that commentators such as Matt Taibbi at Rolling Stone conclude that Goldman Sachs is like “a giant vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity.”

Perhaps Goldman is somewhat more respectable than that.But Volcker is surely right that trading firms that are not deposit-taking institutions should not benefit systematically from any actual or implicit taxpayer guarantees.  Whatever the new system is to be post-crisis, such guarantees need to be stopped or the whole system really will be undermined by moral hazard.

• Vampire squid needs to be taken off the menu
• Neil Wilson
• Absolute Return + Alpha
• September 22, 2009

Blankfein’s trickle-down catechism isn’t working.Now we have two economies – atlas rx viagra.We have recovering banks while we have 10-plus percent unemployment and 17.5 percent underemployment; atlas rx viagra.The gross thing about the Wall Street of the last decade is how much its success was not shared with society.

Goldmine Sachs, as it’s known, is out for Goldmine Sachs.

As many Americans continue to struggle, Goldman, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase, banks that took government bailout money after throwing the entire world into crisis, have said they will dish out $30 billion in bonuses — up 60 percent from last year.

• Virtuous Bankers? Really!?!
• Maureen Down
• New York Times Editorial
• November 11, 2009

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MF Global is the largest Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) that is not owned by a swaps dealer.  So they have an extremely good vantage point to make the following claims:

The turmoil in the over-the-counter derivatives market – widely blamed for exacerbating the financial crisis – is prompting customers to look for alternatives to the banks that traditionally deal the contracts, according to Bernard Dan, chief executive of MF Global, one of the world’s biggest financial derivatives brokerages.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Dan said MF had opened more than 300 new institutional accounts in the three months to the end of September in the US and Europe, with OTC transactions accounting for 43 per cent of the company’s total revenues, up from 31 per cent in the same period last year.

Mr Dan said customers were telling him they were concerned at the continued risks on the books of the biggest banks, such as difficult-to-value “level 3” assets – accessrx.com review.He said cheap financing from the Federal Reserve for US banks was aggravating the problem.

“Our new accounts come on the heels of this dislocation in the banking sector, with clients seeking a compelling non-bank alternative,” he said; accessrx.com review.“ Accessrx.com review: we’re beginning to see clients saying: ‘I don’t want to be with the nine big banks because of those level 3 assets and all that greater risk they’re taking.’ So we’re reaping the benefits in spite of the bigger headwinds in the industry.”

• MF Global says OTC customers abandoning banks
• Hal Weitzman
• Financial Times
• November 5, 2009

If you are a corporation or an asset manager and you are not worried about the creditworthiness of your counterparty – you should be!  The fact that your peers are worried enough to migrate the clearing of their OTC derivatives onto exchange clearinghouses ought to be a wake up call.

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Acessrx: lately Goldman Sachs executives have been invoking God and Jesus in trying to justify their obscene profits.  It shows a total disconnect between Goldman and the real world.  They are actually fulfilling the classic stereotype of the megalomaniacal Wall Street banker.  This is their “Marie Antoinette” moment.

“The injunction of Jesus to love others as ourselves is a recognition of self-interest,” Goldman’s Griffiths said Oct.20, his voice echoing around the gold-mosaic walls of Acessrx: st. Acessrx: paul’s Cathedral, whose 365-feet-high dome towers over the City, London’s financial district.“ Acessrx: we have to tolerate the inequality as a way to achieving greater prosperity and opportunity for all.”

• Profit ‘Is Not Satanic,’ Barclays CEO Varley Says
  
• Simon Clark and Caroline Binham
• Bloomberg
• November 4, 2009

So, it’s business as usual, then, regardless of whether it makes most people howl at the moon with rage? Goldman Sachs, this pillar of the free market, breeder of super-citizens, object of envy and awe will go on raking it in, getting richer than God? An impish grin spreads across Blankfein’s face.Call him a fat cat who mocks the public – acessrx.Call him wicked; acessrx.Call him what you will.He is, he says, just a banker “doing God’s work”

• I’m doing ‘God’s work’ – acessrx. Acessrx: meet Mr Goldman Sachs
• John Arlidge
• The Sunday Times
• November 8, 2009

What is particularly creepy about these episodes is that these are deliberate attempts by Goldman Sachs to improve their image.  These executives are preaching in churches and giving public interviews as part of a public relations offensive designed to quell public anger prior to paying out their obscene bonuses.  The fact that these executives cannot avoid twisting scripture and coming across as megalomaniacs is particularly telling.

Update: Matt Taibbi could not pass up a chance to take the Vampire Squid to task for claiming Christ-likeness.

Update: Lloyd Blankfein says he was a victim. He was making a joke and didn’t mean to say what he was quoted as saying.

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Hard Asset Investor has posted an excellent interview with world renown economist Nouriel Roubini.

Here are some excerpts:

Lara Crigger best online viagra scams, associate editor, HardAssetsInvestor.com (Crigger): Here we are at the “Inside Commodities” conference—so which commodities do you think will perform well in 2010?

Nouriel Roubini, chairman, RGE Monitor (Roubini): Well, in my view, commodity prices have increased since the beginning of the year too much, too fast, when compared to the improvement in economic fundamentals.Some of that increase is justified.But if the global economy were to have a more anemic, subpar recovery—if instead of a V-shaped recovery, there’s going to be a U-shaped recovery—then I actually think demand for commodities would be weak compared to supply, and there could be a correction in commodity prices in 2010.

Take oil prices: They have gone up from $30/barrel to over $80, at a time when demand is back to 2005 levels, and oil inventory is at all-time highs – best online viagra scams.Part of the increase is justified by fundamentals; best online viagra scams.But part of it is essentially this wall of liquidity chasing assets, and the effect of carry trade on the U.S; best online viagra scams.dollar, driving further higher these commodity prices.

So these nonfundamental factors can push oil and commodity prices higher, especially if there’s going to be an increase in expected inflation.But the fundamentals of supply and demand actually suggest that, from now on, oil and other commodity prices should be lower, rather than higher.

Crigger: Is OPEC still effective at managing oil prices? In the 1970s, they were viewed as this mastermind of pricing; but these days, they seem pretty ineffectual.

Roubini: OPEC can manage prices marginally. Best online viagra scams: the only supplier that has excess capacity that can use it to stabilize oil prices is Saudi Arabia.But once oil is above $80 like it is now, ETF demand, options demand, speculative demand, these can easily push it to above $100.

I would say that if there were a reason we had the global recession last year, it wasn’t just Lehman or the subprime mortgage problem; it was that when oil went to $145. That was a major, real trade shock negative, and a real disposable-income shock for the U.S., Europe, Japan, China and all the other oil-importing and commodity-importing nations around the world – best online viagra scams.That kept the world in recession when oil was at $145.Now, I feel that oil at $100 is going to tip the world into a double-dip recession.

Crigger: Why?

Roubini: Because last year, when oil went to $145, half the world, like emerging markets, was growing very fast.But today, with the global economic collapse, we’re now barely out of the ground.The economy is on its knees, trying to rise.If oil were to go because of nonfundamental reasons toward $100, then I would say oil at $100 would be like a big hammer beating on the head of the global economy. At current levels, oil prices aren’t justified, but they can go higher because of market dynamics and speculation; much higher.

Crigger: You’ve come out in favor of position limits for commodities—how would that solve this problem?

Roubini: I’m in favor of position limits, because I think this volatility in oil prices is severely damaging the global economy. When oil goes to $145, we have a global recession – best online viagra scams.When oil goes to $30, nobody invests in new capacity – best online viagra scams.And these swings in boom and bust in oil prices are extremely damaging to economic growth.It’s time to control it.If we don’t control it best online viagra scams, these booms and busts are going to become more severe, more damaging and more risky.

Crigger: If we put in place position limits, how would that impact futures-based commodities funds? Would that kill them off, as some have said?

Roubini: It might kill them off, but frankly, who cares? I care about the real economy.I care about not having another global recession.If people are speculating on oil, and that pushes oil up to $145 like last year—I’m in favor of limits on that – best online viagra scams.Who cares about this? Frankly best online viagra scams, I couldn’t care less.

Crigger: Thanks for your time.Enjoy the conference!

• Nouriel Roubini: The Coming Commodities Correction
• Lara Crigger
• Hard Assets Investor
• November 6, 2009

Kudos to Hard Assets Investor, who clearly caters to people who speculate on oil, for publishing this powerful interview.  Be sure and visit their website to check out the whole interview – best online viagra scams.

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This Goldman Sachs Managing Director mentions commodities as one of the markets that is currently experiencing a price bubble and calls on regulators to take action! (I think he missed some of the internal memos) Being based in China you would think he has a valuable perspective when it comes to the China-hype concerning commodities.

UPDATE: The Commodities Department at Goldman Sachs is still very bullish on oil, copper and corn despite the fact that supply and demand fundamentals are terrible. For instance they think that a reduction in distillate inventories is a reason to buy brand viagra online, completely discounting the fact that refineries are shutting down because business is so bad. Apparently the perma-bulls in the commodities business (whose bonus is dependent on commodity revenues) see any bubble as a buying opportunity!

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The huge discrepancy between supply and demand fundamentals and the price of oil is on full display.  Consider these two recent articles.  One of which discusses how demand will stay low for a long time, while Saudi Arabia is increasing supply.  The other talks about how speculators have pushed up the price of far-dated futures contracts.  Which, by the way, means that index specualtors will continue to experience large negative headwinds due to “roll yield.”

The International Energy Agency next week will make a “substantial” downward revision to its long-term forecast for global oil demand, a person familiar with the matter said, marking the second year running the group has slashed its view of the world’s thirst for oil….

The IEA bug viagra online, which advises rich nations, such as the U.S., on energy matters, is set to use its closely watched annual World Energy Outlook report to forecast that improved energy-efficiency measures in developed nations, as well as climate-change legislation, will help to slow the rate of global oil consumption.

A person familiar with the Paris-based IEA’s plans said “demand-management policies” are having more impact than previously expected in the developed world, which accounts for about 55% of world oil consumption.

• World Need for Oil Expected to Ease
• Spencer Swartz
• The Wall Street Journal
• November 4, 2009

Long-dated oil prices have risen to within a whisker of $100 a barrel, in a sign that investors are expecting high prices to return after the recession.

The furthest forward oil contract traded on exchanges – the December 2017 futures – rose last week to $99.97 a barrel for the Brent benchmark and to $99.43 for the West Texas Intermediate, the highest since last October.The prices have risen by 10 per cent in the past month.

“The entire crude forward curve has moved up,” said Michael Wittner, oil strategist at Société Générale – bug viagra online.“We assume that investor flows have pushed up long-dated prices.”

Hussein Allidina bug viagra online, head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley, added: “The deluge of global liquidity has contributed to lifting oil prices – along with other risky assets – since February.”

• Fears as price of long-dated oil soars
• Javier Blas, Carola Hoyos, and Gregory Meyer
• Financial Times
• November 8 2009

OPEC is increasing output at the fastest pace in two years, adding to near-record inventories and threatening speculators betting on $100 crude with losses.

The number of options contracts to buy oil at $100 by March almost quadrupled in October and increased another 5.9 percent so far this month.As traders piled in, OPEC boosted production 4 percent, or 1.1 million barrels a day, since March amid the worst global recession since World War II.

• Oil at $100 Doesn’t Compute as OPEC Output Pace Grows
• Mark Shenk
• Bloomberg
• November 9, 2009

Not only does the emperor have no clothes but he’s shamelessly dancing in our faces.  When will the weak-kneed Commissioners at the CFTC put a stop to this madness?

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The mechanics of selling the expiring contract and buying the nearby future – known as “rollover” in the industry jargon – is behind the main problem of the indices and the reason why many investors are questioning the wisdom of using them – buy cialis online in usa.Because the investors sell one future and buy the following one buy cialis online in usa, the shape of the futures curve is crucial to the profitability of commodities indices.In addition to the spot return buy cialis online in usa, commodity index investors obtain a separate return – the roll yield – as they roll trades over each month, just before the futures contract expires.That return is positive when futures prices are lower than the prevailing front-month price – a backwardated market – and negative when futures prices are higher – or in contango – buy cialis online in usa….

episodes of contango since 2006 have eroded gains, in some cases more than offsetting the rise in spot prices, or added to losses when spot prices were declining….

Since January 2005 buy cialis online in usa, the S&P GSCI spot index – measuring just the appreciation of the commodities – has risen a massive 60 per cent on the back of China’s voracious appetite for raw materials.But when taking into account the roll yield, the total return is a loss of about 15 per cent during the period due to the contango, according to Reuters data….

In spite of all the problems, bankers believe commodities indices – vanilla ones affected by the contango or the more exotic new varieties built to mitigate the problem – will continue to be popular as the easy way to gain access to the commodities asset class.

• Commodity indices: ‘rollover’ practice hits investors
• Javier Blas
• Financial Times
• November 1, 2009

I am shocked that there are not more pension funds suing their consultants over this!?  Did these pension funds really understand that they were investing in a mythical creature called “roll yield.”  And if they did understand that, then why did they go ahead and put their retirees money into “fool’s gold?”

In the last four years commodities are up 60% (even with the bubble popping last year) and yet “investors” in the GSCI have losses totaling 15%.  That is greather than a 75% difference!

What ever happened to fiduciary duty?

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Oil prices doubled from mid-2007 to mid-2008, skyrocketing from $75 to nearly $150 per barrel, largely based on  a wall of speculative money flowing into commodities futures.  That was one of the major causes of the worldwide “Great Recession” that we have still not recovered from.  It is important for policymakers to acknowledge this foundational truth in order to prevent the same thing from happening again and killing our recovery.

Two articles highlighted the deadly role played by inflated oil prices:

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• Nouriel Roubini: The Coming Commodities Correction
• Lara Crigger
• Hard Assets Investor
• November 6, 2009

Though it’s universally viewed as a crisis of the financial sector’s making, several voices (notably James Hamilton) have argued the recession that began last year had a lot to do with the sharp rise in oil prices over the preceding months and years….

A feature in the draft executive summary of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, which will be published tomorrow, revisits this argument and comes to a rather worrying conclusion.

It starts out keeping in line with the prevailing view: the run-up in oil prices from 2003 to mid-2008 played “an important, albeit secondary” role in the global economic downturn that took hold last year. Higher oil prices made oil-importing countries more vulnerable to the financial crisis, it says.

The feature concludes, however, on a somewhat stronger note.

The IEA points out that it had warned in 2006 that the effect of high oil prices from the preceding four years had not yet worked their way through the world economy, and that further increases in prices would “pose a significant threat to the world economy, by causing a worsening of current account imbalances and by triggering abrupt exchange rate realignments, a rise in interest rates and a slump in house and other asset prices”.

• Did oil cause the latest recession? IEA weighs into the debate
• Kate Mackenzie
• Financial Times EnergySource Blog
• November 9, 2009

While DC dithers, the whole world burns.

Looks like the temperature is set to rise dramatically.

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