But Cialis In Us
“Importantly, the eight empirical studies we reviewed generally found limited statistical evidence of a causal relationship between speculation in the futures markets and changes in commodity prices-regardless of whether the studies focused on index traders, specifically, or speculators, generally; but cialis in us….
As (sic) result, the fact that the studies generally did not find statistical evidence of such a relationship appears to suggest that such trading is not significantly affecting commodity prices at the weekly or daily frequency.” Click Here for REPORT
- ‘Issues Involving the Use of the Futures Markets to Invest in Commodity Indexes’
- Orice Williams
- General Accountability Office report number GAO-09-285R
- February 5, 2009
Ms.Williams and her fellow researches have written a very nice report that I enjoyed reading and learned from. They don’t talk about the academic studies anywhere in the report. They just say that they have reviewed them and that they are therefore sure that speculation is not a cause of price movements.
I hate to burst Ms – but cialis in us.Williams bubble (pun intended) but there is no statistical proof that supply and demand have caused commodity price movements either – especially the outrageous price movements we have seen in 2008. So because we have no “statistical proof” is it reasonable to conclude that supply and demand played no part in commodity price movements – of course not! This is the ultimate red herring.
In order to have “statistical proof” you need to have a model that can predict prices. All of these studies use simplistic linear models that fail to predict prices. But that proves nothing. Any model you try to build is going to have to be non-linear / non-parametric / multi-factor (since it’s foolish to think only one factor can predict prices) and once built it will have to constantly be updated because reality changes. Then if you’re successful in building a predictive model, you’re not going to publish it in an academic paper, you’re going to start making millions trading on NYMEX.
Ms.Williams “interviewed CFTC staff, as well as officials representing two swap dealers, an asset management firm, three futures exchanges, and an industry trade association.” So basically she talked to everyone on the wrong side of this issue. If she had contacted us we could have referred her to
- Dr; but cialis in us.Robert Aliber – University of Chicago – co-author “Manias Panics & Crashes”
- Dr – but cialis in us.Robert Schiller – Yale University – author of “Irrational Exuberance”
- Dr – but cialis in us.Jeffrey Sachs – Columbia University – Special Advisor to Ban Ki Moon at the UN
- Dr.Nouriel Roubini – Columbia University – Roubini Global Economics (see below)
- Tim Evans – Energy Analyst at Citigroup
- Mike Rothman – Energy Analyst at ISI Group
- Ed Morse – Energy Analyst at Louis Capital Markets (formerly with Lehman Brothers)
- Ben Dell – Energy Analyst at Sanford Bernstein
- Fadel Gheit – Energy Analyst at Oppenheimer
I could go on but cialis in us, but you get my point. If she’d talked to anybody other than the futures exchanges, swaps dealers and CFTC then she probably would have heard people say “yes speculators caused a price bubble to form.” This blog is full of dozens of examples of that.
Nouriel Roubini is a world renown economist who is especially visible lately due to successfully predicting the current financial crisis and its severity. He published a report in May 2006 saying that commodities were experiencing a price bubble and that when it popped it would be disastrous for prices. Click Here for REPORT.
He says:
“Formally proving the existence of asset bubbles is never easy and some distinguished scholars – Garber, Fama – believe that asset price bubbles never occur and that any asset price change can be explained by some economic fundamentals. Thus, the case for bubbles versus fundamentals must rely mostly on circumstantial – as opposed – to hard proof (something like the recent “duck test” of Baum).”
He concludes his report:
“At the end of the day, like in most episodes of sharp asset price increases, speculative
factors interact with fundamental ones to exacerbate first the boom side of the cycle
and then the bust side of the cycle….
speculative factors and irrational exuberance led to bubbly conditions as the spike in
prices in 2006 appeared quite unrelated to traditional fundamental factors; but cialis in us….
bursting of the bubble will pile on the changing in fundamentals to lead to much more
virulent falls in prices – but cialis in us….
This means that the excessive increase in commodity prices that we have observed in the last few years will not last but cialis in us, especially when the U.S.and global growth slowdown emerges; but cialis in us….
since “duck”, “smell” and “pornography” tests of a commodity bubble clearly suggest elements of a bubble, once the bubble is pricked by the changing fundamentals the market reaction will be sharper and more violent than in the absence of a prior bubble.”
So I leave it up to the readers: who do you think has a better handle on the issue of commodity bubbles? The U.S; but cialis in us.Government Accountability Office or Roubini Global Economics?